NBA Draft Lottery: Odds, scenarios, mocks

The NBA Draft lottery will be held Tuesday in New York at about 8:30 p.m. ET, prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference finals between Golden State and San Antonio (ESPN).

Here are some things to know:

ON-STAGE PARTICIPANTS

Boston – Wyc Grousbeck; Charlotte – Rich Cho; Dallas – Michael Finley; Denver – Gary Harris; Detroit – Jeff Bower; Lakers – Magic Johnson; Miami – Alonzo Mourning; Minnesota – Andrew Wiggins; New Orleans – Alvin Gentry; New York – Walt Frazier; Orlando – Frank Vogel; Philadelphia – Joel Embiid; Phoenix – Devin Booker; Sacramento – Dave Joerger.

PROBABILITIES

Boston Celtics* (Can swap their first-round picks with the Brooklyn Nets): 25%

Phoenix Suns 19.9%

Los Angeles Lakers: 15.6%

Philadelphia 76ers: 15.6%

Orlando Magic: 8.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves: 5.3%

New York Knicks: 5.3%

Sacramento Kings: 2.8%

Dallas Mavericks: 1.7%

New Orleans Pelicans: 1.1%

Charlotte Hornets: 0.8%

Detroit Pistons: 0.7%

Denver Nuggets: 0.6%

Miami Heat: 0.5%

HOW THE LOTTERY WORKS

The actual Lottery procedure will take place in a separate room just prior to the national broadcast on ESPN. Select media members, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm of Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawing.

Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Prior to the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.

The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls prior to the drawing.

The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds; then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn.

There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the number one pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second pick and then again for the third pick. If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another 4-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again.

The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed. The Brooklyn Nets finished the season with the NBA’s worst record (20-62) and Boston received Brooklyn’s pick via trade, so the Celtics will be assigned the first 250 combinations. The Miami Heat, the best team in the lottery at 41-41, will have only five combinations out of 1,000.

The order of selection for the teams that do not win one of the top three picks will be determined by inverse order of their regular-season record. Thus, Boston can pick no lower than fourth and Phoenix (24-58) no lower than fifth.

Denise Pelli, a partner in the accounting firm of Ernst & Young, overseas the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes prior to bringing them to the studio for the broadcast. The announcement of the Lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum. A second representative from each participating team will be seated on stage.

Neither the Deputy Commissioner nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the Lottery results prior to the opening of the envelopes. The team whose logo is in the last envelope opened will pick first in the 2017 NBA Draft, which will be held Thursday, June 22.

MOCK DRAFTS