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June 10, 2024, 3:33 p.m

Edmundo González Urrutia, who was little-known until recently, is running in Venezuela's presidential election with the support of Maria Corina Machado, the opposition leader who has been barred from participating in the race. Voting intent is already close to 50%, according to the average of polls published so far. For his part, the official candidate and current Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro, rose some points, and his support levels range between 22% and 25%.

by: Country

Saúl Cabrera, of Consultants 21, confirms that the elections scheduled for next July 28 are on track to become polarized again: “González Urrutia already has almost all the support that María Corina had, and he can continue to grow.” Mobile phones, social networks and WhatsApp groups have contributed to the promotion of González Urrutia, who, in the space of a few days, has transformed from a completely unknown person into a person fully known by the majority of the population. Cabrera comments that “minority candidates and judicial parties did not take off, and remained on small and similar margins,” referring to parties that pretend to be opposition, but are under the wing of Chavismo. He adds: “I think the government did not succeed in this attempt to divide the vote.”

Felix Cejas, a political analyst, actuary and director of polling firm Delfos, agrees that the opposition candidate has room to continue to gain support, “particularly among the undecided.” Analyzing the official candidate, he notes that “Maduro has been gradually climbing the approval ratings since last year.” This means that his campaign, joined by the President of the Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, and the Vice President of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, Diosdado Cabello, had an impact. “Right now it's closer to 25%,” he added, “but we're kind of stuck around that number, at least for now.”

The publication and analysis of opinion polls, which is a completely normal event in any democratic electoral event, has become something of a public taboo in Venezuela, due to the anger that their content causes among some Chavista officials. In a press conference held last week, Rodriguez denied the opinion polls that depicted the political reality in the country (the same ones that predicted all of Hugo Chavez's victories in the past), and added that publishing those numbers was part of a calculated plan to denounce. Fraud in advance and ignoring Venezuelan institutions.

You can read the full memo at Country