A discarded section of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to collide with the moon early Wednesday in an event that researchers say offers a rare opportunity to study the effects of high-speed impacts on the lunar surface. While the collision is unintentional, scientists plan to closely monitor the area before and after the impact to better understand how the moon’s surface changes following such an event.
SpaceX Rocket Debris Set for Lunar Impact
According to space-tracking analysis by Bill Gray, a developer of software used to monitor objects in space, the rocket stage is expected to strike the moon at approximately 2:35 a.m. Eastern Time. The object is traveling at more than 5,000 miles per hour and is part of the Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage, measuring roughly the size of a five-story building.
The hardware was originally launched in January 2025 as part of a SpaceX mission that carried two lunar landers and scientific instruments to the moon.
Gray’s analysis indicates the rocket stage will impact the moon’s sunlit side, in a region visible from Earth, near the northwestern area of Einstein Crater. The collision is expected to create a crater at least 17 meters (about 56 feet) in diameter.
Impact Was Not Planned
The lunar collision was not part of SpaceX’s mission plan. According to the Associated Press, the rocket stage was never intended to strike the moon after completing its mission.
SpaceX has not publicly commented on the expected impact.
NASA Preparing to Observe the Impact Site
Scientists at NASA are preparing to study the impact using the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), which has been mapping the moon since 2009.
Brent Garry, project scientist for the LRO at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, said the spacecraft will capture observations of the area both before and after the collision.
“After the impact we might have a little bit more knowledge of where it is. We can do some additional targeting about a week after the impact and get some targeting over where the site is,” Garry said during a June discussion hosted by NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI).
Researchers hope the images will help identify changes to the lunar landscape and provide valuable scientific data about impact events.
Will the Collision Be Visible From Earth?
Whether skywatchers will be able to see the impact remains uncertain.
Some researchers believe even the dust cloud created by the collision could be too faint for most professional telescopes to detect. Gray noted that rocks thrown into space during the impact could briefly form a visible plume against the dark background of space.
“Rocks ejected by the impact may form a ‘plume’ that will be visible against the dark background once they’re off the moon,” Gray wrote on his website. “As with much in science, the answer is ‘we don’t know; let’s find out’… Maybe we’ll see rocks ejected from the crater.”
Other scientists say the event could still be detectable using highly sensitive astronomical equipment, making it an unusual opportunity for both researchers and experienced amateur astronomers.
Scientists See Rare Research Opportunity
Ben Fernando, a postdoctoral fellow and researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory, said the impact could provide valuable insights into how collisions shape the moon’s surface.
“Given these are so rare, I would encourage people who are interested and aware of the risks to take a look,” Fernando said during the SSERVI discussion. “To be clear, this is not something that you’re going to see by pointing a pair of binoculars at the moon, but if you have the right equipment and the right time…why not take a look?”
Looking Ahead
Although the impact is unlikely to be visible to the general public, it represents an uncommon scientific event. Observations from NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and ground-based telescopes may help researchers better understand the effects of high-speed impacts on the moon, adding valuable information to ongoing lunar exploration and planetary science research.