How the Trump economy compares to the economies under other presidents
Economy of America
President Donald Trump inherited a strong economy, and during the first three years of his tenure it continued to grow at a healthy rate. Then the Govt-19 epidemic changed everything.
At the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency in January 2017, the economy was healthy.
Employers had added 76 months of straight jobs – the longest hiring at the time – and unemployment was just 4.7%, down 10 years. Corporate profits were all the time high, so were stocks. Overall, GDP is growing at 2.5% a year – a modest rate for the world’s largest economy. Everything is not rosy: federal debt has been at its highest level since the 1950s. But by most measurements, it is difficult to deny: The economy was solid. And fortunately for Trump, growth continued from there.
Below, we looked at 10 indicators to show how the economy developed under each president, from Ronald Reagan to Trump. Remember, each presidency began in different circumstances. George W.. The first year Bush was in office was affected by the dot-com bust and the September 11 attacks. It started with the Great Recession following the catastrophic housing accident of Barack Obama and the global financial crisis. However, despite these crises, the most recent presidents have led the growing economy during their tenure. Trump’s presidency will be characterized by the country’s response to the Govt-19 epidemic, which still plays two A health crisis And a The economic one.
Circle the table to see how the economy under Trump compares to how it developed under his predecessors.
Until 2020, President Trump’s first term was characterized by solid job growth, but then the epidemic was eradicated 15% of US jobs In two months. Since May, the economy has only recovered half of that work, and Trump is going with the election Worst job losses on record Under any president.
In contrast, at this point in Obama’s presidency, the job market is up 0.4%. He took office at a time when employers were cutting hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. Then his appointment to the presidency kicked in high gear.
By the time Trump took office, he had received one of the strongest job markets in American history from Obama. But Covit-19 quickly put an end to it. The Unemployment rate Shot 14.7%, Up 10 percentage points since Trump took office. Although it has improved slightly since then, unemployment is still high in September. No other president has ever experienced such a sudden spike as unemployment.
Trump wants to talk about how middle-class incomes have increased during his presidency – and that was true in his first three years. In September, the The Census Bureau released the data Shows what the average American family earns In 2019, 68,703 – After correcting inflation, from 2016, to 800 5,800 or 9%. A strong job market Helped raise revenue, Because he worked full time throughout the year. And more All 20 states raised them The minimum wage will increase the income of low-income workers.
We do not yet have data for 2020, but the epidemic will definitely affect those numbers to a large extent. For some families, 200 1,200 stimulus checks and a temporary $ 600 increase in weekly unemployment benefits boosted income during epidemics. But many more, especially those who have lost businesses or are suffering from chronic unemployment, are finding it difficult to meet the results.
The longest-running bull market in history began shortly after Obama took office and followed Trump’s presidency. Investors welcomed Trump’s corporate tax cuts in 2017, and although the trade war with China kept them on edge, stocks were record holders until 2020. S&P500 Before recovering in the summer, it fell 34% in a month. As of Oct. 27, the overall index for Trump’s presidency had risen 49%. While that quick bounce-back is a bright spot for him, it contrasts with 76% share gains under Obama and 64% gains under Clinton.
The housing market is one of the few areas in the economy that has not fallen dramatically during epidemics. Because that’s part of it Low interest rates And the trend of working from home led urbanites to buy homes in the suburbs and countryside Housing prices In many regions. Extensive activities including this Prohibition on discharges And Tolerance schemes for mortgages, Helped families struggling so far to cope with the crisis. Those unpaid bills could eventually catch up with millions of families, causing misery in the housing market. But so far, home prices have risen 21% since Trump took office.
Food pricesSmall increase
If you feel that your grocery bill has been high recently, it is because of food prices Done Rise Suddenly during infections. However, in the long run, they are relatively stable. At the same point in the presidencies of Reagan, George HW Bush, Clinton and George W. Bush, food prices were already 9% or more. They are only 6.1% under Trump and 5.9% under Obama The era of low inflation.
Consumer costAbove, but less effective
American consumers are not easily seduced because they are the backbone of the US economy. Although consumers are sharp Reduce costs At the onset of the epidemic, they rushed to reopen their wallets in May and June when stimulus checks and unemployment benefits came to their aid. Retail cost of goods, especially through online retailers, Recovered quickly. (Meanwhile, spending on services like haircut, Travel And Eating in restaurants Covid is below pre-19.) Even with the rapid recovery, consumer spending has grown less than it did under Trump’s previous five presidents.
Production jobsRarely changed
American Manufacturing Jobs Soared in 1979, Then no president other than Clinton has headed for gains in factory work. So when Trump promised to bring back factory work, it was a lofty order. In Trump’s first three years, the manufacturing sector added some jobs, but by 2020, the epidemic had wiped out the small improvements that those workers had experienced. As of September, the sector had lost 164,000 jobs, or 1.3% since Trump took office. As globalization and technological advancement reduced the number of manufacturing workers in the United States, layoffs in factories were even steeper under Presidents Reagan, Obama and the bush.
The debt burden of the central government is not high compared to the size of the economy World War II, But it didn’t just get there during Trump’s presidency. The debt grew under Reagan, who caused massive tax cuts, and it soared under Obama, who used federal stimulus funds to help the economy during the Great Recession.
At the time of Trump’s inauguration, debt accounted for about 76% of GDP. But by mid-2020, It was 105% – 29 percent increase during his presidency. Economists often argue for borrowing when the economy is strong and spending more when the economy is weak. But despite his promise to “free up” the debt, Trump has nurtured it in good times and bad. While that increase came from corona virus relief funds, policies such as previous corporate tax cuts and increased defense spending also spurred the rise.
Broad action of economic activity – GDP – Measures the value of goods and services produced in the country. It usually grows by 2% to 3% per annum after adjusting for inflation. Trump’s first three years Everything was within that range, But 2020 saw a sharp decline. We do not have full year data yet, however The second quarter was the worst on record Going back to 1947. Third quarter data Exit Thursday, And is expected to show some improvement – but not full recovery.
Additional development of Byron Manley
GDP is calculated as a percentage change from the fourth quarter before the inauguration of each president, which is the most recent data prior to their inauguration. Lines for average income are calculated as a percentage change from the last calendar year prior to the inauguration of each president. The lines showing unemployment and federal debt are calculated as percentage points because those two measurements started as ratios. All other taxes are calculated as a percentage change from January when each president takes office. President Reagan is not included in the house price data because the data is only available for 1987 and does not cover his entire presidency.