The prospect of Lula’s candidacy is a new variable on the Brazilian political spectrum
The repeal of rulings by former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has shaken Brazil and will force a redistribution of messages in a country extremist by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who is now gaining a strong contender in the 2022 elections.
The decision, announced by a court judge on Monday, adds a new variable to the serious crisis the country is going through, with more than 266,000 deaths due to the Coronavirus pandemic and unemployment at its highest historical levels.
The former leftist president was not acquitted (2003-2010), as the judge decided to try him again in another court due to procedural failures. But the decision allows him to return to the ring and this “will polarize political narratives”, says analyst Murillo de Aragau of Arko Advice.
“Bolsonaro can radicalize his speech and Lula can say he has been persecuted. The narration will take on strong overtones,” he explains.
And the consultancy Eurasia Group confirmed that “the presence of Lula will clearly hinder the electoral opportunities of a centrist candidate,” in favor of polarization with Bolsonaro.
Lula, 75, has run in every election since the re-establishment of democracy in 1985, with the exception of 2018, when he outperformed Bolsonaro in polls, but was disqualified due to his first two convictions of negative corruption and money laundering.
In the second round, Bolsonaro defeated Fernando Haddad, who had been appointed by Lula. The competition divided the country between adherents of the left-wing Workers’ Party (which ruled for thirteen years, with Lula and Dilma Rousseff) and its critics, who embraced the figure of the former army captain with the support of ultra-conservative Pentecostal churches and agricultural trade lobby groups. . And security.
Last Sunday, a poll conducted by the polling center Ipec showed that Lula would be the only candidate with political capital higher than that of Bolsonaro.
Although the study did not confront them in a head-to-head duel, it did show that the former president had popular support at 50%, versus Bolsonaro’s 38%.